The war-torn nation of Sudan has become synonymous with relentless swings between brutality and flickering glimmers of peace. This week appears to be one such swing, plunging to a devastating low point in El Fasher before offering a fragile suggestion of progress.
Last week witnessed the grim culmination of an 18-month siege as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary group infamous for its roots in the Darfur genocide militias, seized control of El Fasher. This strategically vital city was Sudan’s army’s final stronghold in the Darfur region. Local and international officials had long warned of impending atrocities if El Fasher fell, and initial reports confirm these fears.
Shocking images captured from space depict pools of blood on the ground alongside what appear to be piles of bodies. Survivors recount widespread killings and mass rapes, echoing chilling videos circulating online. Arjan Hehenkamp, Darfur crisis leader for the International Rescue Committee, describes a haunting lack of displaced men among those fleeing El Fasher to nearby Tawila – an unsettling absence raising terrifying questions about the city’s missing population.
Adding another layer of despair, the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), the global authority on hunger crises, declared a famine in both El Fasher and Kadugli, a city in Sudan’s central Kordofan region. This grim designation marks a rare occurrence in 2023, with the IPC previously declaring a famine in parts of Gaza earlier this year.
Amidst this bleak panorama, however, a sliver of hope emerged on Thursday. The RSF unexpectedly agreed to consider a humanitarian ceasefire proposed by the Quad, a US-led diplomatic group mediating the conflict. While Sudan’s army hasn’t officially responded and remains skeptical, many experts remain cautious about the sincerity of the RSF’s intentions. Drone strikes targeting army positions in the capital followed this announcement, casting doubt on its immediate impact.
Despite the fragility of this development, it signals a potential shift in the war’s trajectory. Understanding how Sudan reached this precarious tipping point is crucial to grasping the context.
A Tangled Web: Origins of Sudan’s Conflict
The Sudanese civil war has claimed over 150,000 lives and uprooted more than 14 million people. A staggering array of armed groups, foreign sponsors, and motivations contribute to this complex web of conflict.
At its core lies a power struggle between General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, Sudan’s army commander and head of the internationally recognized government, and General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (“Hemedti”), leader of the RSF, who originally served under Burhan. Their bitter rivalry erupted in full force in 2023 after a failed coup attempt by the RSF that ignited fighting across Khartoum, Sudan’s capital city.
Initially, the RSF held the upper hand, capturing large swathes of Khartoum and surrounding areas. However, the army managed to reclaim control of the capital earlier this year. Now, the RSF has consolidated its grip on western Sudan, including Darfur – Hemedti’s home region and a crucial source of gold revenue for the group.
Darfur holds strategic importance beyond economic gain; it remains a hotbed of regional instability due to its history with ethnic conflict and displacement from past atrocities. The fall of El Fasher has effectively split Sudan into an east-west divide, leaving open the possibility of a protracted “hurting stalemate.” Both sides seem unwilling or unable to achieve decisive victory, but are capable of inflicting immense suffering and perpetuating the bloodshed.
Shifting Sands: International Players
Sudan is ensnared in a geopolitical dance involving regional powers vying for influence. The army enjoys backing from Egypt, Iran, and most Arab states, while the RSF’s primary patron, despite an international arms embargo, remains the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
The UAE has consistently denied arming or financing the RSF, but evidence of this support is extensive and corroborated by a recent leaked UN report. Sudan’s strategic significance for various powers, including its access to key maritime routes and Red Sea ports, further complicates the landscape.
The Quad’s Gambit: Can Diplomacy Bridge the Divide?
Amidst these shifting alliances, diplomatic efforts have faltered repeatedly in the past. A turning point may be emerging, however. In September 2023, the Quad – comprising the US, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE – announced a joint proposal for peace negotiations. This itself signifies a major development, as Egypt and the UAE back opposing sides in the conflict, and their disagreements have previously derailed such initiatives. The RSF’s willingness to engage with the ceasefire proposal suggests they may be seeking leverage following their victory in El Fasher.
Recent events suggest international pressure on the UAE is growing. The massacre in El Fasher has drawn global attention to the potential reputational cost of Emirati support for a group accused of genocide and fueled by illicit gold profits. A senior Emirati diplomat recently admitted that backing Sudan’s 2019 coup was a mistake, marking a rare acknowledgment of policy failings in a region where the UAE has aggressively pursued regional influence through proxy networks of rebel groups and secessionists.
While these tentative signs offer glimmers of hope, ending the war remains a monumental challenge. Sudan serves as an archetype of 21st-century conflict: a hybrid war characterized by waning US power, the rise of “middle powers” like the UAE, extensive drone warfare, and escalating disregard for international norms protecting civilians.
Despite recent hopeful developments, the path towards peace in Sudan remains fraught with obstacles. The immediate priority is to secure desperately needed humanitarian access into conflict zones while fostering a dialogue conducive to achieving a lasting resolution.
