President Donald Trump has recently focused on Honduras’ presidential election with unusual intensity. The election, held on Sunday, sees a tight race between Nasry “Tito” Asfura of the conservative National Party and Salvador Nasralla of the centrist Liberal Party—separated by a mere few hundred votes. Trump’s intervention isn’t just about supporting a candidate; it involves a pardoned ex-president, accusations of fraud, and a broader shift in US policy toward Latin America.
The Intervention: Endorsements and Pardons
Last week, Trump publicly endorsed Asfura on Truth Social, framing Nasralla as “borderline communist.” More notably, Trump issued a full pardon to former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández, convicted of drug trafficking in New York and serving a 45-year sentence. Hernández, a member of Asfura’s party, was implicated in taking bribes from Mexican drug cartels and overseeing a narcostate. This pardon seems paradoxical given Trump’s consideration of military action against Venezuela’s president, also accused of drug trafficking, but Hernández has actively lobbied for his release, framing himself as a victim of political persecution—a narrative reinforced by Trumpworld figures like Roger Stone. The case against Hernández was largely built during Trump’s first term, with a key prosecutor later becoming a Trump-endorsed federal judge.
Why This Matters: US Influence and Regional Strategy
The US has a long history of intervention in Honduran politics, dating back to the “Banana Republic” era. However, Trump’s involvement is exceptionally overt. The stakes are high: Honduras is crucial for US cooperation on migration and counternarcotics. Additionally, Honduras recently established diplomatic ties with China, breaking decades of alignment with Taiwan. The US aims to roll back Chinese influence in Latin America, making Honduras a key battleground.
Expert Insight: A Former State Department Official Weighs In
Ricardo Zúñiga, a former US State Department official, explains the dynamics at play. Before Trump’s intervention, the main issue was public dissatisfaction with the current government’s unfulfilled promises. Asfura, a standard center-right politician, has attempted to distance himself from Hernández’s legacy. Zúñiga suggests Trump’s pardon wasn’t driven by ideology but rather by effective lobbying from figures like Roger Stone, who convinced Trump that Hernández was unfairly persecuted.
The Future of US-Honduras Relations
Trump’s intervention, including his unsubstantiated accusations of electoral fraud, has likely heightened political tensions in Honduras. Regardless of who wins, both candidates will likely seek good relations with the US. However, the National Party successfully portrayed Nasralla as anti-American, influencing perceptions among Hondurans.
Zúñiga notes a critical lesson: bypassing traditional US institutions like the State Department and appealing directly to Trump is now the most effective way for Latin American actors to influence US policy. This highlights a shift in US engagement, prioritizing personal connections over established diplomatic channels.
In conclusion, Trump’s focus on Honduras isn’t about consistent policy; it’s about personal influence and exploiting vulnerabilities in a region where both China and the US vie for dominance. The situation underscores a broader trend where direct presidential intervention trumps bureaucratic processes in shaping US foreign policy.
